### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- London Review of Books
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Gavin Simpson
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Slice Sampling
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Earle Wilson
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- All about Sankey diagrams
- James' Empty Blog
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- "The Expert"
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Awkward Botany
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- What If
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Gabriel's staircase
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Ted Dunning
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)

### climate change

- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Climate model projections versus observations
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- RealClimate
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Earth System Models
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Spectra Energy exposed
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- David Appell's early climate science
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- weather blocking patterns
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Reanalyses.org
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: premature categorization

## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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